It was recently that I asked here on Mobility blog the question, for how much longer shall the smartphone market remain this profitable?

Many respondents were of the opinion that the smartphone market would yield greater returns for a long time. I deliberately kept quiet though I disagreed with that general flow of thought.

Well, we have it on good authority from Forbes that the feature phone market is now more profitable than the smartphone market. Here is how the Forbes article opens the subject:

For many handset vendors, the world has turned upside down. Nokia‘s $40 feature phones are vastly more profitable than Sony Ericsson‘s $200 Android models. This is not how the smartphone revolution was supposed to turn out.

Well, that didn’t take long! Just about four weeks after my article.

Yes; the feature phone market is shrinking, but also consider that there are now very, very few feature phone manufacturers (almost everyone has abandoned that field for smartphones), and your guess is as good as mine who are benefiting from this shift.

Most people will agree with the Forbes article that this is not how the smartphone revolution was supposed to turn out. Not me. I saw this coming.

Read the full Forbes article

Gartner has released figures of global phone and smartphone sales for Q3 (July/Aug/Sep) 0f 2011.

A few nuggets from Gartner’s report

Worldwide sales of mobile devices totaled 440.5 million units in the third quarter of 2011, up 5.6 percent from the same period last year.

Despite a drop in market share, Nokia continued to be the worldwide leader in mobile device sales as it accounted for 23.9 percent of global sales.

Non-smartphone devices performed well, driven by demand in emerging markets for low-cost devices from white-box manufacturers, and for dual-subscriber identity module (SIM) devices.

Smartphone sales to end users reached 115 million units in the third quarter of 2011, up 42 percent from the third quarter of 2010.

Android OS Rose to Account for 52.5 Percent of Smartphone Sales.

Heavy marketing from both Nokia and Microsoft to push the new Lumia devices should bring more improvement in the fourth quarter of 2011. However, a true turnaround won’t take place until the second half of 2012.

Samsung became the No. 1 smartphone manufacturer worldwide.

Smartphone OS Marketshare

Here’s a table showing where each smartphone OS stood at the end of that period (and figures for 2010 too, for comparison purposes).

Source

The above infographic should serve as a guide for developers targeting the African continent.

Source: Afrographique

Mobile ad company InMobi has released a report focused on the African mobile market compiled from their global mobile advertising network data for April 2011.

In brief, the report shows Nokia dominating the mobile phone market and Symbian still at the top of the African smartphone market.

Mobile Phone Share

The top 3 mobile manufacturers in Africa:

1. Nokia: 60.9%
2. Samsung: 20.3%
3. Sony Ericsson: 6.3%

Smartphone OS Share

The top 3 smartphone platforms in Africa are:

1. Symbian: 24.2%
2. BlackBerry: 3.1%
3. Android: 0.7%

Note that these figures are all derived from ad impressions on the InMobi network. It remains to be seen what these charts will look like in the next one to two years.

On the 7th of May 2009, I published an article titled, What Nokia needs to fix right away. I am surprised that its been two years already. Anyway, two years is enough to review the items I listed and other things I said in that article.

Adequate RAM
I can’t speak for the older 3rd and 5th Edition devices, as I haven’t used those in a while, but the current crop of Symbian 3 devices appear to mostly have adequate RAM. Both the N8 and the E7 run up to 10 apps (and in some cases even more) without breaking a sweat.

The “out of memory” errors are now a rare occurence.

UI Sluggishness
Again, S60 is gone and Symbian3 runs smoothly for the most part. Certainly, the latest crop of Symbian devices cannot be described as sluggish anymore.

Web browser
This is one area in which Nokia have foot-dragged. Even RIM beat Nokia to a new, better browser. The new Nokia browser is ready though, but not available on any production device yet. The browser will be shipping with the Symbian Anna update – and that update can’t come too soon.

Nokia is stretching its resources in too many directions
It does not look like this will change for a while. There’s Symbian on its way out but still 150million of those to ship and support, there’s Windowsphone on its way in, there’s MeeGo for research/experimental purposes, and then there’s S40 for lowend devices.

Perhaps that is the burden of being the world’s largest manufacturer of mobile phones.

“Download” app
Smartphone users who came in recently may have no idea what the heck the “Download” app was on Nokia/Symbian devices. Well, it was the Ovi Store’s first incarnation. Believe me, it mostly did not work.

Thankfully, it was fixed and is still being refined with the Ovi Store, which mostly works well, minus a few niggles. Today the Ovi Store is recording over 5 million downloads per day. Kudos!

S60 5th Edition UI
I am a huge Nokia fan, but I am also one of their greatest critics. From where I stood in 2009, S60 5th Edition was just so bad that I wouldn’t buy or use a device running that platform. I simply boycotted that entire range of Nokia devices and used smartphones from other manufacturers.

Well, S60 5th Edition UI hasn’t been exactly fixed, but it has been replaced with Symbian3 which is much, much better and very usable. I only wish Nokia simply stopped producing devices running 5th Edition. What’s the point? You see, people who don’t know better would buy 5th Edition devices and just conclude that Symbian sucks – not knowing that something better exists.

Internal memory
Nokia have stepped up their game in this area and are shipping their ddevices with adequate (and in many cases, more than adequate) internal memory.

Conclusions
We see that apart from the browser, Nokia have addressed the majority of issues with the Symbian platform. Plus, as good as Symbian3 currently is, those who have reviewed the Nokia C7 Astound (running a pre-Anna firmware) swear that it makes Symbian3 feel frustrating. This suggests that Symbian Anna may be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Will the above changes suddenly turn Nokia’s smartphone fortunes around? I don’t think so. So many things have changed since I wrote that article two years ago. Too many things.

In the discusssion following that article back in 2009, I also responded to a comment with the following comment of mine:

…let me have the priviledge of saying upfront that Nokia is on a downward slide, and while they may not end up like Motorola (those guys should just stick with supplying the military and leave consumer phones well enough), Nokia will lose significant market share.

Someday soon, Nokia won’t be the leader in terms of marketshare any longer. They have already lost the position of leader in terms of innovation and product development. The former is just a matter of time.

No-one stays on top forever.

Was I right? Yes; I was. The downward slide happened and is still happening. Symbian is already no longer the number one smartphone OS. Nokia’s Symbian OS lost significant marketshare.

But if there is one manufacturer with the financial and technical capacity to pull their migration plans off without becoming a minor player, it is Nokia. Still, we will have to wait and see it all play out.

In the meantime, I remain an outspoken Nokia loyalist and critic rolled into one.

Canalys today released its worldwide country-level smart phone market data for Q1 2011, revealing that Android led the market for the second quarter running, and, with 35.7 million units shipped, increased its share to 35%. At the same time, Canalys confirmed that Asia Pacific (APAC) became the largest smart phone market region, with year-on-year growth of 98% to 37.3 million units, putting it ahead of Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) for the first time since Q3 2007. On a country basis, mainland China, South Korea and India delivered strong volumes and registered triple-digit growth.

Overall, worldwide smart phone shipments grew 83% to 101.0 million units. Though its market share shrank from 39% a year ago to 24% in Q1 2011, Nokia held onto its worldwide leadership position with 24.2 million units shipped – a 13% year-on-year rise – despite the current realignment of its platform strategy, staying ahead of RIM in EMEA and Apple in APAC. APAC became the largest region for Nokia, accounting for 53% of its overall shipments, overtaking EMEA by more than 3 million units.

‘Nokia is under considerable strain in the smart phone market as it transitions strategy, platforms and people,’ said Canalys Principal Analyst Pete Cunningham. ‘Its worldwide reach, however, should never be underestimated. Canalys’ country-level data shows that the vendor remains number one in 28 countries, including mainland China, where it grew 79% to 8.9 million units, thanks in part to Chinese New Year shipments.’

At a platform level, Android’s continued dominance was boosted by good performances by a number of key vendors. ‘HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola and Sony Ericsson drove Android shipments in the first quarter, with each vendor shipping well over 3 million devices,’ said Cunningham. ‘Samsung also shipped nearly 3.5 million bada operating system-based smart phones, outperforming total shipments of Windows Phone devices by more than a million units.’

‘Samsung’s own operating system development, combined with the branding and investment in its Wave smart phones at mid-tier prices, has led to good uptake in developed markets, such as France, the UK and Germany,’ continued Cunningham. ‘This achievement shows that there is still room for multiple operating systems, and that vendors can benefit from maintaining control of device development to hit the right markets and price points.’

Nokia, Apple, RIM, Samsung and HTC were the top five global smart phone vendors, as in Q4 2010. Apple continued to make market share gains, reaching 19%. RIM’s share, however, dropped in Q1, as its portfolio awaited a refresh and the vendor focused on the PlayBook launch. Overtaking Motorola, LG moved into sixth place, with its Optimus series of Android smart phones doing well in all regions.

The US remained the largest country for smart phone shipments, with Apple substantially extending its lead, achieving a share of 31% and growth of over 150% year on year. Volumes were boosted significantly by shipments of the iPhone 4 with Verizon Wireless. Android remained the leading smart phone platform in the US for the third consecutive quarter, with a 49% share. Growing by well over 200%, HTC became the leading Android vendor in the US and the second-place smart phone vendor in the country overall.

‘Shipments of its EVO series, Inspire 4G and Thunderbolt enhanced HTC’s strong performance in this quarter,’ said Canalys Vice President and Principal Analyst Chris Jones. ‘The vendor has a wide and regularly refreshed portfolio, covering multiple network technologies, which puts it in a strong position both in the US and worldwide.’

The popularity of 4G-branded models, such as the Samsung Galaxy S 4G, HTC EVO Shift 4G and the T-Mobile myTouch 4G, heavily influenced US market shipments this past quarter. Q1 also marked the first full quarter of LTE smart phone shipments, following Verizon’s 4G network launch in December 2010. Canalys estimates that shipments of these devices reached over 600,000 units.

‘We are starting to see some significant benefits from marketing high-speed networks to consumers in the US, as end users become more familiar with the performance and technical aspects of their smart phones,’ said Jones. ‘It’s a trend that will inevitably spread around the world over the coming years as carriers upgrade their network infrastructures.”

Many people actually seem to consider it news that Android OS will overtake mobile operating systems made by Research In Motion (RIM), Apple and Microsoft to occupy the second position after Symbian OS.

Of course, when organisations like Gartner and IDC speak, the information carries some weight.

Yet, this information is old news to us here at MobilityNigeria. A full year ago, I already made that same projection in my article, Battle of the Mobile Operating Systems.

From my October 2009 article:

I submit that Symbian is likely to remain the dominant mobile OS for a long time. Current trends suggest that Android will take the 2nd place quickly.

One of the advantages that Symbian has is what will help Android achieve this feat. Both Symbian and Android are licenced by numerous manufacturers, some of which are adding layers of services, functionality and usabilty to the underlying operatiing systems.

From Gartner in September 2010:

Communication service providers’ (CSPs’) marketing and vendor support for Android-based smartphones will drive the platform to become the second-largest platform, following Symbian, by year-end 2010 (see Table 1). This is almost two years earlier than Gartner predicted a year ago.

From IDC in September 2010:

Symbian will maintain its leading position, while continuing to slowly lose market share. BlackBerry’s market share is projected to be almost flat (though, because of the overall growth of the smartphone market, RIM will see device shipment numbers increase). Android will overtake BlackBerry and reach second position, possibly posing a threat to Symbian in the (very) long run. Windows Mobile (or rather, Windows Phone) is expected to regain a bit of the market share it has lost in the past few years.

Of course, it isn’t as if this is the first time that these research organisations have projected that the competition is between Symbian and Android. It is the hype around the news that is surprising to me. People are acting like this is really, really, really news.

Well, it isn’t.

For sure, Gartner and IDC are giving us projected figures, and in my opinion that is a risky exercise. Those figures are not likely to pan out. But there is no doubt that the top two mobile Operating Systems for a while will be Symbian and Android in first and second place respectively.

I remember that someone questioned my position earlier and I replied him, “I will be glad to tell you, I told you so“.

In my October 2009 article, I mentioned the fact that the other operating systems are generally mono-products – iPhones are manufactured by only Apple; Blackberries are manufactured by only RIM, and Palm devices by only Palm. Bada OS devices are made by only Samsung for now.

To expect the battle to turn out otherwise does not make sense, unless there is a policy shift by one or more of the others.

And those screaming that Symbian is dead are living in denial. Symbian is selling more and more devices with each passing year. Plus, Symbian still sells more devices than most of the other platforms put together. How can these indices be interpreted in any way as death throes?

Personally, I have issues with Symbian, as do many others. But that does not translate to Symbian dying. For the records, I have issues with Android and iOS too – and I know that many others do too.

Before WebOS, Palm was dying. They were selling less and less. That was dying. Symbian is alive and well, people. Sales are up. Read the figures. The figures don’t lie.

As for Windowsphone 7, it is not here yet and I won’t place any bets on that platform yet. Once it arrives and we see how the river flows, I’ll have much to say. In the meantime, here is a summary of where I stand:

Fact: Symbian will lead for years to come.

Fact: Android, not iOS, will be Symbian’s main competitor. iOS never was a competition to Symbian. It is not likely that it will ever be. Even today as I type this, iOS is not number two. Blackberry is.

Possibility: Some day, Android may overtake Symbian as the king of the mobile jungle.

Fact: All others except for Windowsphone 7 remain niche platforms, being limited to only one manufacturer per OS unlesss and until a policy shift happens.

So is it news that Android will be the platform to compete with Symbian for the number one spot in mobile OS market? Nope. Old news. I took that for granted a year ago. Still, it is good to see that others in the industry see things clearly too.

Research firms Strategy Analytics and IDC released separate, detailed looks at global mobile phone market share, shipment and growth information covering the third quarter of 2009

According to the reports, market leader Nokia lost a small margin of marketshare (from 38.6% marketshare in Q3 2008 to 37.8% in Q3 2009), while Samsung increased by as much as 4% (from 17.1% in Q3 2008 to 21.0% in Q3 2009). LG also made a strong showing growing its sales from 7.5% in Q3 to 11.0% in Q3 2009.

Motorola and Sony Ericsson are both still on a downward slide, and we are hoping here at MobilityNigeria that 2010 will bring them better fortunes.

In the meantime, as someone has said, the Koreans are coming!

Source